Earlier testing and contact tracing might have prevented SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, from becoming established in the United States and Europe, suggests a new study recently published in Science.
For the study, an international research team-including UBC scientist Dr. Jeffrey Joy-reconstructed the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across the world using genomic data from coronavirus samples, travel records, and computer-simulated models of how the virus spread and mutated over time.
Their analysis reveals an “extended period of missed opportunity” when, they say, intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented the virus from becoming established in North America and Europe.
In this Q&A, Dr. Joy, an assistant professor in the UBC faculty of medicine’s division of infectious diseases, discusses the findings.
What are the key findings of this study?
Our research revealed that the earliest documented arrivals of SARS-CoV-2 from China into the U.S. (Washington) and Europe (Bavaria, Germany) in early January 2020 did not actually lead to COVID-19 outbreaks, contrary to popular and widespread accounts. In fact, we found that these early cases were very successfully contained by rapid, effective public health interventions, such as testing, contact tracing and effective isolation of suspected cases.
It was actually other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy (in late January) and Washington State (in early February) that were responsible for the ignition of the epidemic in both Europe and North America.