Estimating the impact of expanded access to antiretroviral therapy on maternal, paternal and double orphans in sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2020

2011 | AIDS Res Ther.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS has orphaned 11.6 million children in sub-Saharan Africa. Expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) use may reduce AIDS orphanhood by decreasing adult mortality and population-level HIV transmission.

METHODS: We modeled two scenarios to measure the impact of adult ART use on the incidence of orphanhood in 10 sub-Saharan African countries, from 2009 to 2020. Demographic model data inputs were obtained from cohort studies, UNAIDS, UN Population Division, WHO and the US Census Bureau.

RESULTS: Compared to current rates of ART uptake, universal ART access averted 4.37 million more AIDS orphans by year 2020, including 3.15 million maternal, 1.89 million paternal and 0.75 million double orphans. The number of AIDS orphans averted was highest in South Africa (901.71 thousand) and Nigeria (839.01 thousand), and lowest in Zimbabwe (86.96 thousand) and Côte d'Ivoire (109.12 thousand).

CONCLUSION: Universal ART use may significantly reduce orphanhood in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Tel: 604-806-8477 | Fax: 604-806-9044
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(Please do not use any of these email addresses to send personal information or book an appointment. To book appointments or contact the H2H clinic, please call 604-416-1517 or fax: 604-564-4893. Do not send your or your client's personal information via email.)

© Copyright BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS
St. Paul's Hospital 608–1081 Burrard Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6Z 1Y6
Tel: 604-806-8477 | Fax: 604-806-9044
General inquiries: info@bccfe.ca
Media inquiries: communications@bccfe.ca
(Please do not use any of these email addresses to send personal information or book an appointment. To book appointments or contact the H2H clinic, please call 604-416-1517 or fax: 604-564-4893. Do not send your or your client's personal information via email.)

Our work serves clients and communities across British Columbia on lands and waters cared for and nurtured by the many distinct First Nations across the province. The BC-CfE humbly and gratefully acknowledge the stewards of these lands, particularly the xʷməθkʷəy̓əm (Musqueam), Sḵwx̱wú7mesh (Squamish), and səl̓ílwətaʔ (Tsleil-Waututh) on whose unceded, traditional and ancestral territories our offices are located.